How to Identify Value Bets in Football Betting

Just so you don't know, the biggest secret for you if you want to make long term profit in football betting is knowing how to spot value bets.

Value bet is not actually when you pick winners, that's far from it. When we talk about value bets, we simply mean your ability to actually find bets where the odds are actually better than they should be.

If you are someone who's a regular bettor, it must have crossed your mind what's the reason why some people make profit frequently from bets while others make losses even when they know football really well.

Well, mentorspredict pays more attention to Value betting simply because we believe it's the only proven way that you can actually use to beat bookmakers hands down.

If you are serious about making money consistently through football betting, then you definitely need to know everything concerning value bets and how they work.

Through this guide we'll teach you how to spot these bets so that you'll be able to start winning on a consistent basis.

Meanwhile, let's first understand everything you need to know about Value Bet.

What is a Value Bet?

For a bet to be seen as a value bet, the real probability of that event happening should be higher than what the betting odds are saying.

Let's say a team has around 60% chance of winning a game and the bookmakers think it's actually 50% chance. Well, that's a value bet we're talking about.

The odds you are actually getting are higher than what you should be getting.

So Value bet indirectly is when you discuss mistakes in how bookmakers price a particular market.

If you bet consistently on Value bets, you are going to be making profits in the long run even if you might lose some bets along the line.

Why Value Matters More Than Winners

If you really want to profit from betting, just picking winners won't be enough for you.

If you must pick winners, it should be at a very good odds.

If for instance you decide to bet on your favorites with odds of around 1.10, that means you are expected to win around 10 consecutive bets before you are able to double your money.

If you happen to encounter just one loss, it will end up wiping around 9 of your wins.

So you see, even if your accuracy is around 80%, you are still going to lose good money if you bet on odds that are terrible.

But if you decide to bet on a value bet with 2.00 that has a 60% accuracy, you are going to still make your profit consistently too.

So anytime anyday, value will definitely beat accuracy.

The reason why we so much prioritize value bets on Mentorspredict instead of picking favorites, because we know that's what is going to give you massive long term profit.

How to Calculate Real Probability

If you want to find value bets, the first step to take is for you to try and compare your probability estimate with the odds bookmakers are offering.

The first step for you to take is to analyze the match.

To do this perfectly you need to make use of statistics and forms of teams involved.

After that, put it in context so that it will be easier for you to estimate the odds being given by bookmakers.

So in essence, if after your analysis you feel that team A have around 65% of winning that game, that is your estimated probability.

The next step for you to take is to convert the odds being provided by bookmakers to implied probability.

Make use of this formula when making the conversion.
100 ÷ decimal odds = implied probability.

What this means is that if the bookmakers are giving around 2.00 odds, that's 100 ÷ 2.00 = 50% implied probability.

With this calculation, you will discover that your estimate which is 65% is obviously higher than the implied probability given by bookmakers which is 50%.

So automatically you've found yourself a value bet.

The Simple Value Betting Formula

Here we've been able to put together for you a basic formula that you can easily make use of if you want to identify a value bet.

Your estimated probability × decimal odds.

If you find out that your result is greater than 1, it means you have a value bet.

However if on the other hand it's less than 1 you don't have a value.

For example now, if by your estimate you think that Manchester United have a 60% chance of winning, that means a 0.60 probability.

And the bookmaker decides to give them around 2.00 odds to win the game.

All you have to do is to calculate 0.60 × 2.00 = 1.20.

So since 1.20 is greater than 1, this means it's a value bet.

For our second example, if you think Arsenal has a 40% chance of winning a game which is around 0.40 probability.

And the bookmakers decides to give them 2.00 odds.

All you need to do is of course to calculate 0.40 × 2.00 = 0.80.

So since 0.80 is less than 1, this is not a value bet.

Final Thoughts

If you want to separate yourself from consistent losers, you must learn how to be able to identify value bets.

This has nothing to do with your football knowledge.

You must always look out for odds that don't really match realities and capitalize on these odds.

Also you need to understand how to easily estimate probabilities very accurately with statistics too.

Always compare these estimates with the odds being given by the bookmakers.

If you must bet, make sure there are genuine value bets available.

FAQs

1. What's the easiest way to find value bets for beginners?

The easiest way to do so is to find matches where the bookmakers are underrating one of the teams.

2. How do I know if my probability estimates are accurate?

Always keep track of every bet you make.

Also ensure you include your estimated probability, the odds as well the outcome.

3. Can I make money betting only on favorites with value?

Yes, if the favorites have odds of around 1.50 1.80 usually give values especially whenever bookmakers underprice them.

Check out some of free football predictions for all types of bets below;

   1. Banker of the day tips
   2. Both Teams To Score tips
   3. Double Chance tips
   4. Away Win
   5. Over 1.5 Goals tips
   6. Over 2.5 Goals tips

Check today’s predictions on MentorsPredict.com and win smarter! Accurate Football Predictions by MentorsPredict

Join our Telegram channel now to start getting free football predictions daily. 

Click to Join the mentorspredict Telegram Channel